Even though it looks like contractors are still buying, developing and building homes the statistics show something different.
Snohomish County lot sales have dramatically fallen in the 1st Quarter 2008 by over 80% from 4th Quarter 2007 and more than 94% from 1st Quarter 2007. 1st Quarter 2008 produced 47 total lot sales where as in 1st Quarter 07 there were 889. This massive decrease reflects contractor’s skepticism to buy, develop and build in such an unstable real estate market.
| City/Area | Plat Name | ||||
| Arlington | Falcon Ridge | ||||
| Granite Falls | Ryan’s Mt. Meadows | ||||
| Lake Stevens | Shirewood | ||||
| Northcreek | 143rd St Short Plat | ||||
| Northwest | Port Susan Tracts | ||||
| Paine Field | Lily’s Court 4 | ||||
| Paine Field | Yuan Heng Short Plat | ||||
| Sky Valley | River King Estates | ||||
| Southwest | Spruce Hills No. 7 |
4 Comments
I’ve been watching the local statistic and talking with the local lenders that the developers and builders deal with . I’ve found that they are definately are sitting on the fence some by choice others…
while this may be a pretty slow time for a number of good and some bad reasons. one thing I have to agree with is an article recently in the herald that took these statistics and the current sale rate of homes in Snohomish County and the growth rate of people moving to the county and put all of that together and within 24 months we could go from a housing glut to a severe shortgage. The developers are hoping and the signs are indicating that this summer things should start easing. There is still great loans for home buyers, they just have to know how to position themselves for approval. It is going to be an interesting year for sure.
Don
The local economy is doing well with unelmployment being really low, 4.5 as of Feb 2008, and there may be a shortage if demand increases and builders as well as the resale real estate segment can not deliver enough supply.
Speaking With a number of local bankers I know, the trend, at least right now, is for the builders to sit on the sidelines waiting for the market to make a subtantial move upwards before they commit to really start building again. while there are some that see this coming, most can’t take the chance. if they put their money out there they want to feel secure that they will get a sale if not before then shortly after the house is finished and get the price they need. the big builders could hold on longer than most of the smaller guys. with the first quarter behind us without much increase and permits are still quite low for the second quarter, it’s going to take the second half of the year to get them going. so I really don’t see any real increase until next year when we could see a shortage starting. Yes the unemployment is low and with the new businesses arriving monthly to Snohomish county and the population coming as well as Boeing recently announcing that they want their suppliers to move closer to them(meaning they want them near Everett.
this all bodes well for both the near and distant future. So, as long as this trend continues, see no reason why it won’t, we’re lucky to be in the part of the country that we are.
There is no doubt that builders are opting not to buy right now and who could blame them after purchasing lots in Marysville for more than $150,000 in 2007. The lot prices correlated with the increases in home prices and with the sales dropping hopefully it will translate into lower prices in later 2008.
Affordability is what has been lost and it is now more difficult than it used to be to get into a 3 bedroom 2 full bath single family home for under $300,000. Time will tell us what will happen and as soon as some more reports are published it will give us a clearer picture.